July 2025 Newsletter
Africa’s Role in Trade, Energy and Diplomacy amid the Middle East Crisis
SUMMARY
The ongoing Gaza–Israel war (Oct 2023–mid-2025) and related US–Iran tensions have destabilised the Middle East and global trade routes. Disruptions in the Red Sea–Suez corridor (e.g., ~50% drop in Suez traffic) and oil flows (Bab-el-Mandeb shipments halved) risk inflation and supply-chain shocks worldwide. African economies are exposed via trade and energy links – for instance, sub-Saharan port calls fell ~6.7% in early 2024, and Egypt's tourism and Suez revenues are plunging. Yet African nations have largely condemned the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, reflecting continental solidarity and moral authority. This brief examines the geopolitical/geo-economic context, outlines risks (economic, diplomatic) and opportunities (non-alignment, peace diplomacy, energy cooperation) for Africa, and offers strategic recommendations for African governments and institutions.
GEOPOLITICAL & GEOECONOMIC CONTEXT
Since Hamas'‘ October 2023 attack, the Israel–Gaza conflict has escalated with major powers involved. By late 2024, Israel's offensive had devastated much of Gaza while Iran responded with ballistic missile strikes on Israeli targets. Israel, in turn, struck Iranian-aligned groups (Hezbollah in Lebanon, and military sites in Syria/Iraq), raising fears of a wider Middle East war. In parallel, Yemen's Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, intensified attacks on Red Sea shipping from late 2023 (over 190 incidents by Oct 2024). These triggered US- and UK-led naval responses to secure maritime routes.
