ASEC Outlines Urgent Measures to Reverse Crude Oil Production Decline and Stabilise Petroleum Revenues
The Africa Sustainable Energy Center is concerned about the country’s rapidly declining crude oil production and the significant fiscal pressures this decline has created. With petroleum revenue falling sharply and mature fields approaching steep natural decline, decisive action is required to protect national income, safeguard energy security, and restore investor confidence.
In the first half of 2025, Ghana recorded a 56% plunge in petroleum revenue, creating a fiscal shock that threatens essential public expenditure and macroeconomic stability. Stabilizing national revenue streams should, therefore, be the Government’s highest priority. The country cannot delay interventions. Thus, immediate and targeted action is required to reverse the decline in production.
ASEC, therefore, outlines these key pointers for the government and all bodies to consider for a strategic solution
1. Unlock the 1.5 Barrel WCTP2 Solution
The West Cape Three Points Block 2 (WCTP2) remains the most commercially viable asset in Ghana’s petroleum portfolio. With an estimated 1.5 billion barrels of recoverable resources, the block provides the only realistic opportunity for substantial incremental production within the short term. The government should be committed to accelerating appraisal, development, and production activities on WCTP2 to unlock this vital national resource.
2. WCTP2 is the Only Near-Term Solution for revenue recovery between 2028–2032
WCTP2 is the ONLY viable mechanism capable of reversing Ghana’s production decline and stabilizing revenues between 2028 and 2032. No other discovered or undiscovered field in Ghana offers the same timeline, resource size, or level of readiness. Immediate action on WCTP2 is therefore essential to securing the nation’s short-term fiscal health.
3. Voltaian Basin Production Not Feasible Before 2033–2036
Commercial production from the Voltaian Basin is not feasible before 2033–2036. While the Basin remains a long-term strategic asset, it CANNOT provide any near-term revenue relief. The Voltaian Basin should be considered a long-term anchor of Ghana’s petroleum future, but it must not be misconstrued as a solution to the present fiscal crisis.
4. GNPC must be made accountable as they will play a critical role in reversing this decline
ASEC is deeply concerned that GNPC has failed to remit $488.8 million in Explorco lifting proceeds to the Petroleum Holding Fund (PHF). This represents a breach of transparency and statutory obligations, especially at a time that GNPC has a critical role to play in reversing the decline in crude oil in Ghana.
In addition, unacceptable diversions of petroleum funds, including the GH¢4.9 million golf clubhouse expenditure, highlight the urgent need for stronger financial discipline and oversight. These matters must be under formal review, and the government should enforce full accountability to protect national resources before handing over oil fields to its subsidiary Explorco
5. $3.5 Billion Investment Is Defensive Capital—Not a New Oil Boom
The recently announced $3.5 billion investment commitment from partners in Ghana’s upstream sector is acknowledged, but ASEC emphasizes that this is a capital that can be used mainly to slow the decline in existing mature fields, not to produce a major new boom. Ghana must, therefore, pursue new high-impact assets like WCTP2 to achieve real production growth.
6. Explorco must lead the operation of WCTP2, but the government must acquire Springfield E&P’s interest in the block rather than reclaim it.
To ensure the timely development of WCTP2, GNPC’s Explorco must be empowered to take the operational lead. However, to avoid potential international arbitration from Springfield, which could arise if the government attempts to reclaim rather than acquire the company’s interest in WCTP2, the government should instead pursue a full acquisition of Springfield E&P’s stake to prevent delays to urgently needed production. This approach safeguards Ghana’s strategic interests, protects project timelines, and ensures uninterrupted progress on the Afina field.
7. Transparency Is Mandatory in the Acquisition of SEP’s interest in WCTP2
The Government has expressed its intention for the Petroleum Commission and GNPC to jointly lead the procurement of a reputable independent technical consultant and an independent transactional advisor for the assessment of WCTP2. This process must be fully transparent, with all technical data required for a comprehensive assessment made readily available. Such openness is essential for an effective evaluation of WCTP2 and for ensuring a sound acquisition decision.
There must be no hoarding, limiting, or gatekeeping of critical data that could influence national decision-making. Transparency is a non-negotiable requirement for this acquisition, and the findings from the independent assessment must be objective and free from commercial or political bias. This approach ensures that Ghana can make evidence-based decisions that accelerate oil production while protecting the national interest.
Conclusion
Ghana stands at a critical point. The decline in crude oil production is no longer a distant concern. It is a present fiscal and economic threat. The government must be committed to addressing the crisis head-on through decisive action on WCTP2, enhanced transparency, responsible governance, and long-term investment in the Voltaian Basin.
